2027: Why Buhari’s Loyalists Cannot Break Tinubu

By Ibrahim Ahidjo Karlahil

The current argument going on in some Northern political circles that former President Mohammadu Buhari and his loyalists are orchestrating a political comeback to derail President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s 2027 ambitions is obviously based on outdated assumptions and ignorance of the stark reality of Buhari’s diminished influence. Buhari’s presidency not only eroded his credibility but also alienated key strategists and political allies who were instrumental in his rise to power. His leadership failures, betrayals and inability to build a sustainable political structure render him ineffective as a power broker.

Buhari’s eight years in power left Nigeria in a worse state than he met it, earning him widespread disapproval even among his core northern base. His poor performance and widespread corruption left him with a legacy of ruined reputation. Under him, Nigeria suffered economic collapse, accentuated by two major recessions, an unprecedented rise in inflation and a currency crisis that continues to haunt the country. His poorly executed monetary policies, including the ill-advised naira redesign, brought untold hardship to ordinary Nigerians that persists to this day. Worst affected are the people of Northern Nigeria!

Insecurity and lawlessness became the new normal. Instead of the promised restoration of security, Buhari’s tenure saw the North consumed by banditry, kidnappings, terrorism and farmer-herder conflicts, leading to mass displacement and loss of livelihoods. The very people who once saw him as a messianic figure have grown disillusioned and disappointed with him. There is also the issue of broken political trust, seeing that he betrayed most of the political figures who helped him attain power in 2015, including Tinubu himself. His failure to reward good with good led to the withdrawal of many allies who once worked tirelessly to make his presidency possible.

In this regard, Buhari’s first and most blatant betrayal is that of Dr. Umar Ardo. Among Buhari’s many political miscalculations, none in my view was as fundamental as his betrayal of Dr. Umar Ardo. As the architect behind the idea for the formation of APC and the driver of Buhari’s fourth presidential bid, Dr. Ardo’s role was indispensable. Before the APC merger, Buhari’s political influence was largely regional and insufficient to win a national election.

Dr. Ardo’s framework was what took Buhari to Tinubu and ultimately brought together the CPC, ACN, ANPP and a part of APGA leading to the creation of APC, to give Buhari a viable platform. Without the role of Dr. Ardo, Buhari would certainly not have attempted a fourth contest in 2015 having already publicly thrown in the towel never to contest again. In other words, his contest leading to victory in 2015 was based on Dr. Ardo’s design, proving that his prior three electoral failures were actually not due to voter fraud or manipulation, as Buhari always claimed, but his inability to structure a winning strategy.

Instead of strengthening his relationship with Dr. Ardo post-victory, Buhari promptly sidelined him, as if he never existed, thus making his first and most consequential error of judgment. This move alienated not just Dr. Ardo but many other political actors who had risked their credibility and resources for his success. By pushing away those who were key to his rise, Buhari set himself up for an eventual failure in leadership and his ultimate political collapse.

Unknown to most people, Buhari’s inner circle had actually been a legacy of electoral failures. Many of the individuals he surrounded himself with while in power are essentially the same individuals now surrounding him. They are the same ones who failed to deliver him electoral victory in 2003, 2007 and 2011. The stark truth is that Buhari could never have won a national election without external help. His first three attempts failed because his campaign lacked national reach and political depth. Equally, the 2015 victory was not a product of Buhari’s political acumen but of a carefully orchestrated merger, strategic negotiations and elite consensus-building – something Buhari himself was never capable of organizing. Finally, the idea that these same individuals, who failed him before, can now mount a significant challenge against an incumbent Tinubu is detached from political reality.

The reality for 2027 is that President Tinubu is not only strong organizationally, but he is also not a politically naive incumbent. He is a seasoned politician with decades of experience in political organization, coalition-building and power retention. Currently, he has absolute control of the APC machinery, having consolidated his grip over the party structure. As the party leader, he controls appointments, party financing and key decision-making processes leading the party to recently pass a vote of confidence on him. So far, therefore, at the party level, Buhari and his followers are irrelevant against Tinubu for 2027.

Political pragmatism suggests that having been disappointed with his performance, Northern elites would also not any longer blindly follow Buhari. As their primary interest of improving the lot of Northern people was not realized under his presidency they will have to look elsewhere for the attainment of their goals. And certainly they will have no incentive to look toward Buhari in this regard. The North is hence unlikely to support an opposition movement built around Buhari’s legacy of failure.

Therefore the argument that Buhari’s loyalists could undermine Tinubu is not grounded in political logic. Buhari lacks a credible political base as his grassroots support has been eroded by economic hardship and security failures. As a person, Buhari is not a mastermind of organization and strategy. He has never been known for political innovation or strategic foresight. His past electoral victories were driven by external actors, not personal brilliance.

Evidently, he has now been abandoned by key allies, as most figures who ensured his 2015 success have distanced themselves from him. And on his own, even at the peak of his popularity, he cannot organize a functional political movement to win a national election. How then can he now pose a serious threat to an incumbent with superior political machinery?

To all intent and purpose, Buhari is now a spent force. His political capital has been exhausted, his credibility is in tatters and his influence has waned. The suggestion that he or his remaining loyalists could alter the course of the 2027 election against Tinubu is wishful thinking. The real question is not whether Buhari will break Tinubu, but whether Buhari himself has any political relevance left.

If 2027 presents a challenge to Tinubu at all, it will not come from Buhari’s camp, but from a more credible, organized and nationally viable force, which the Buhari camp can well be part of. But for now, Buhari remains politically irrelevant watching in silence, not because he is plotting, but because he has no more moves left to make. Given this record, any suggestion that Buhari can now rally a formidable political force against Tinubu, or any other political force for that matter, is not only unrealistic but also infeasible.