By Engr Shakbab
If the latest findings from Geopolitics Survey International (GSI) are anything to go by, the All Progressives Congress (APC) may need to rethink its 2026 governorship ambition entirely. In a sweeping, data-driven assessment of voter sentiment from about 45,000 voters, Governor Ademola Adeleke of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) has emerged not just as the frontrunner but as a political force far ahead of his challengers.
With an overwhelming 66% of voters naming Adeleke as their preferred candidate and 65% pledging allegiance to the PDP, the survey paints a picture of a governor deeply entrenched in the goodwill of the electorate. Conducted across all nine federal constituencies and drawing from a massive 45,000 respondents, the credibility and scope of the data are hard to challenge. The APC trails far behind at just 25%, while other parties and candidates are barely registering in the minds of voters.
Perhaps the most striking revelation isn’t just Adeleke’s lead, but why the people support him. A commanding 80% of respondents cite performance and track record as the single most important reason for their choice. This isn’t mere party loyalty, it’s a vote of confidence in governance, a resounding endorsement of results over rhetoric.
In under three years, Adeleke has transformed the narrative in Osun: from paying off backlog salaries and revitalizing the civil service, to launching critical infrastructure projects and fostering digital innovation through his tech-forward policies. The “dancing governor” has become the delivering governor, a leader whose populist charm is now matched by administrative competence.
The APC’s internal disarray doesn’t help its case. Their forerunner coming from the “Westorial” side of Ikire, Bola Oyebamiji (8%). With Iyiola Omisore (6%), and Bashiru Suraju (5%) splitting a fragmented base, the opposition lacks the unity, momentum, or vision to mount a credible challenge. Their focus on politics-as-usual simply doesn’t resonate in a state that’s hungry for progress, not propaganda.
This is not just an electoral lead; it is a governing mandate. With this kind of public endorsement, Adeleke is poised not only to win in 2026 but to solidify a PDP stronghold in Osun until at least 2030. For the APC, the writing is on the wall: this is not the season to dream, it is the time to regroup.
In politics, numbers don’t lie. And right now, all the numbers belong to Adeleke.
