Prominent journalist and political analyst Reuben Abati has cautioned that any attempt to replace Vice President Kashim Shettima ahead of the 2027 general election would amount to a grave political miscalculation with far-reaching consequences for the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC).
Abati’s warning comes amid growing but unofficial speculation within political circles that President Bola Ahmed Tinubu may be under pressure to alter his Muslim–Muslim ticket in response to religious and regional agitations. While no formal move has been announced, the debate has gained momentum in elite and media spaces, prompting Abati’s intervention.
According to him, Vice President Shettima has conducted himself with uncommon restraint and loyalty since assuming office. Despite occasional narratives of marginalisation, Shettima has avoided public confrontation, choosing instead to remain dutiful and focused on his responsibilities. Abati notes that such discipline has helped preserve internal cohesion within the presidency at a time when the APC is grappling with economic reforms, security challenges and opposition regrouping.
Beyond loyalty, Abati argues that Shettima brings formidable political credentials to the ticket. A former two-term governor of Borno State and a former senator, the Vice President is regarded as a seasoned administrator and policy thinker, particularly on security and development issues affecting northern Nigeria. In Abati’s view, sidelining such a figure would weaken, rather than strengthen, the ruling party’s electoral appeal.
A major pillar of Abati’s argument is regional arithmetic. Shettima is currently the highest-ranking political office holder from the North-East, a zone that played a strategic role in the APC’s 2023 victory. Removing him from the ticket, Abati warns, could be interpreted as political betrayal, potentially triggering resentment across Borno, Yobe, Adamawa, Bauchi, Gombe and Taraba states—states the APC cannot afford to alienate ahead of a tightly contested election.
Religion also features prominently in the analysis. Abati cautions that replacing Shettima with a Christian running mate may not resolve existing tensions. Instead, it could provoke a backlash from the Muslim North, already sensitive to narratives of exclusion and imbalance. Such a move, he argues, risks reopening fault lines the party has so far managed to contain.
Importantly, Abati notes that President Tinubu currently enjoys a strong political advantage, with influence over about 28 sitting governors and firm control of party structures nationwide. With the opposition still fragmented, he questions the wisdom of introducing avoidable instability by tampering with the ticket.
In essence, Abati’s commentary is less a defence of personalities than a call for political caution. His message is clear: altering the Tinubu–Shettima ticket ahead of 2027 could distract the administration, unsettle key voting blocs and hand the opposition an opening it currently lacks. For the APC, he suggests, continuity may be the safer and more strategic option.
Abuja Network
